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Inflation in the first months of 2023

Inflation in the first months of 2023

In the first months of 2023, the world inflation situation has been complicated, although it has cooled down, it is still at a high level. Inflation of the euro area in February 2023 increased by 8.5% over the same period last year. In particular, inflation in France and Spain in February continued to increase due to the increase in prices of food and services, the average inflation in the first two months of this year increased by 6.1% and 6.0%, respectively.

US inflation in January 2023 increased by 6.4% and the US Federal Reserve (FED) maintained a tight monetary policy. In Asia, inflation in January 2023 of Thailand increased by 5.02% over the same period last year; Singapore increased by 6.6%; Philippines increased by 8.7%; Laos increased by 40.3%; Korea increased by 5.2%; Japan increased by 4.3%; China increased 2.1%.

Compared with other countries, Vietnam is not in the group of countries with high inflation when the consumer price index (CPI) in the first 2 months of 2023 increased by 4.6% compared to the same period last year but higher than the increase of 1.68. % of the first 2 months of 2022. The main reason is that at the same time last year, the Covid-19 epidemic was still complicated, Vietnam has not fully opened to welcome international tourists, especially has not been affected by the impacts. negative impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In addition, policies such as value-added tax support, extension of tax and fee payment deadlines, etc. have expired since the beginning of 2023, causing commodity prices to rise again. The high production costs of enterprises due to the high prices of domestic and imported input materials are also being reflected in the prices of consumer goods and services.

Monitoring CPI fluctuations compared to the same period last year for the past 10 years shows that, starting from 2014, the CPI cycle repeats every 3 years in the first months of the year, then follows a decreasing trend for the past 10 years. to the end of the year. The average CPI of the whole year of these years is lower than the average CPI of the first 2 months of the year.

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